Croston Intermittent Demand Calculator
Estimate nonnegative intermittent demand using separately smoothed positive demand sizes and intervals.
YOUR CALCULATION
Result
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Calculation steps
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How to calculate
Initialize size at the first positive observation and gap at its one-based time, then update only at subsequent positive demands.
At positive demand: size←α demand+(1−α)size; gap←α interval+(1−α)gap; forecast=size/gap
Worked example
Constant positive demand5 every period yields a Croston forecast5 under the stated initialization.
Assumptions and input details
Nonnegative observations with at least one positive value. Classic Croston has known bias; the separate SBA number is (1−alpha/2) times this forecast. No obsolescence detection, probabilistic interval or guaranteed forecast accuracy.
References: Hyndman: intermittent count forecasting
Using this calculator
Can I enter my own problem?
Yes. Replace the example values with your own inputs. The result, calculation steps, tables and applicable diagrams update from those inputs. Blank or invalid values clear the result; example values are never silently substituted for missing inputs.
Are the results exact?
Results use floating-point arithmetic and displayed rounding. Read the formula, assumptions and any stated data precision before interpreting the result.
Is my input uploaded?
The calculation runs in your browser. No account, file upload or external AI service is required. Inputs are not saved between page reloads.
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