Football Goal Probability Calculator
Compute independent-Poisson home/draw/away, total-goal and both-teams-score probabilities from entered expected goals.
YOUR CALCULATION
Result
—
Calculation steps
Work through one step at a time or reveal the complete calculation. The steps use your current inputs.
How to calculate
Evaluate the independent goal-count model and aggregate the score grid into match and total-goal events.
P(H=i,A=j)=Poisson(i;λhome)Poisson(j;λaway); sum score cells for each event
Worked example
When both entered mean goals are zero, the model gives draw probability one and both-teams-score probability zero.
Assumptions and input details
Means are entered, not predicted from teams or odds. Independent constant goal rates, no score dependence, red cards, extra time or live updates. Mathematical probabilities are not calibrated match forecasts or wagering advice. Sums use goals 0–60 for each team; a 0–8 score table is shown.
Using this calculator
Can I enter my own problem?
Yes. Replace the example values with your own inputs. The result, calculation steps, tables and applicable diagrams update from those inputs. Blank or invalid values clear the result; example values are never silently substituted for missing inputs.
Are the results exact?
Results use floating-point arithmetic and displayed rounding. Read the formula, assumptions and any stated data precision before interpreting the result.
Is my input uploaded?
The calculation runs in your browser. No account, file upload or external AI service is required. Inputs are not saved between page reloads.
Combine entered individual shot probabilities into expected goals and a full independent-shot goal-count distribution.
Calculate exact-count and cumulative probabilities for events with a specified mean per interval. Compare below, at-most, at-least and above probabilities.
Build a configurable standings table from recorded match scores.
Reserved advertising space.