Tennis Game Win Probability Calculator
Calculate modeled game-win probability, deuce probability and expected points under a constant independent point-win chance.
YOUR CALCULATION
Result
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Calculation steps
Work through one step at a time or reveal the complete calculation. The steps use your current inputs.
How to calculate
Combine pre-deuce score-path probabilities with an absorbing deuce calculation or one no-ad deciding point.
Advantage deuce win=p²/[p²+(1−p)²]; game win=early wins+P(reach deuce)×deuce win
Worked example
At an entered 50% chance on every independent point, either game model gives 50% game-win probability. Expected points are 6.75 in advantage scoring and 5.8125 in no-ad scoring.
Assumptions and input details
The point probability is supplied by you and is constant across all points. No server changes, court-side effects, score pressure, double faults or observed-player estimates are inferred. This calculates one game from 0–0, not a set, tiebreak or match. Scenario probabilities do not guarantee sports outcomes.
Using this calculator
Can I enter my own problem?
Yes. Replace the example values with your own inputs. The result, calculation steps, tables and applicable diagrams update from those inputs. Blank or invalid values clear the result; example values are never silently substituted for missing inputs.
Are the results exact?
Results use floating-point arithmetic and displayed rounding. Read the formula, assumptions and any stated data precision before interpreting the result.
Is my input uploaded?
The calculation runs in your browser. No account, file upload or external AI service is required. Inputs are not saved between page reloads.
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